Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts On UC vs UCF, The Continuing Famine

(Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

The Bearcats lost 24–3 to fall to 4–6 on the season. They’ll need to get past two good teams if they want to make a bowl game this year. I think I’m just about officially broken. I watched every minute of the game today, and I’m not giving up, but holding onto hope and optimism has become essentially impossible. I just want these guys to finish well, whatever that may be.

Positives:

• Dredrick Snelson. The guy who scored UCF’s first touchdown is named Dredrick Snelson, which is one of the best names I’ve heard in a while.

Negatives:

• The offense is downright anemic. The streak without a touchdown stretched to 10 quarters, which is legitimately impossible for me to imagine. I’ve always known the UC offense to be the type to rack up yards, if not points. How we’ve managed to fall so quickly, I don’t know. If my math is correct, that’s just about 154 minutes of game clock since the last touchdown. To make matters worse, the Bearcats have scored just six points total in that stretch.
• The Bearcats are the worst second half team in America. I’ll update this when I get complete stats for the rest of FBS play. After last week, UC was tied for dead last in second half scoring with Vanderbilt. Today, they threw up another goose egg, so it’s only going to get worse. In Cincinnati’s six losses this season, they’re being outscored 105–6 in the second half. That’s incomprehensible.
• The Bearcats keep getting blown out. During the Tuberville tenure, the Bearcats have lost to unranked opponents by at least 21 points on nine occasions. That matches the total that Rick Minter, Mark Dantonio, Brian Kelly, and Butch Jones shared from 2000 through 2012. The program is falling fast, and quickly getting lapped by weaker teams, as evidenced by UCF securing bowl eligibility against UC today after going winless in 2015.
• The national media is finally noticing. I suppose this could be a good or bad thing, but I generally would rather not have all media attention towards my alma mater centered around how quickly the football program went from relevance to turmoil. Between the loss last week, Tuberville’s blow up at a fan, and the shoddy effort today, it seems like just about all media outlets are calling for a coaching change in Clifton. I agree, but the negative publicity is still hard to watch.
• Attendance next week is going to be brutal. This is going to be the hardest part for me. There are a lot of seniors on this team who I’ll look back on fondly. Gunner Kiel, Tion Green, Nate Cole, Alex Pace, Zach Edwards, etc. These guys gave their blood, sweat, and tears to my alma mater, and I just know that they’ll be playing out their last game in front of an empty stadium after suffering through a pair of brutal seasons to close their careers. If you have a ticket, please show up or give it to somebody who will. These kids deserve one last effort from us as fans.

See you at Nippert. Go Bearcats. Beat Memphis.

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts on UC vs BYU (“Go To Hell, Get A Job” Edition)

(

Keenan Singleton on Twitter

)

I’m running out of things to say, so I’ll keep this short and sweet.

The Bearcats got absolutely choked out by BYU yesterday, and now own a losing record in November for the first time since 2010 and the second time since 2005. Not only that, but based on what I’ve seen from this Bearcats team and what I’ve seen from the teams left on the schedule, I don’t see us winning another game. Left on the docket is a road game against a solid UCF team, a home finale (that could be an attendance catastrophe) against a pretty good Memphis team, and a trip to Tulsa to face a 7–2 Golden Hurricane team that will be trying to close the year at home with a win for their seniors.

I pray I’m wrong, but I don’t have enough evidence to call this a bowl team.

Positives:

• Another respectable defensive performance. Despite BYU’s pedestrian record, they’re a pretty good team. The Bearcats held them to 20 points on 337 yards. QB Taysom Hill went 15-for-25 for 130 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. When you’re looking for any positive, that’s good enough. I feel like this defense as a whole has outplayed themselves. We should probably be worse than we’ve been.
• Zach Edwards got his interception, joining the INT party the defense has had this season. In what has to have been an excruciang junior and senior year for Edwards, I’m happy for him each time he makes a play.
• Tion Green had a nice outing. Because UC trailed for most of the afternoon, he only got 16 carries, but he took those 82 yards for 5.1 yards per carry. He also had five catches for 22 yards.
• Devin Gray is still really good. Man, I love this kid. He had seven catches for 105 yards. If you can round up a couple yards in a few games, that’s his fifth 100-yard outing in his first nine games at the FBS level. Not many guys do that.

Negatives:

• 90% of what happened yesterday. Yeah:

[embed]https://twitter.com/KJMSingleton/status/795057563314384896[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795263317698875392[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795263961272881153[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795265221799661568[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795266521652150276[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795268627368988672[/embed]

The national media is finally noticing what’s happening in Cincinnati.

[embed]https://twitter.com/RealNRB/status/795032213335187456[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/edsbs/status/795064719514173440[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/PaulMyerberg/status/795074787978657792[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/status/795065195752255489[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/795065836025221120[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/DustinFox37/status/795067885404176388[/embed]

I think I speak for everyone when I say that I just want this season to be over, one way or another. The Bearcats are 11–11 since the start of last year, and I think we’re all over it. I’ll be at Nippert to see the Bearcats play Memphis in two weeks, but that’s more out of love and loyalty than excitement. Get me to December so we can wipe the slate clean.

Go Bearcats. Beat UCF.

By The Numbers: Second Half Squander

The Bearcat got arrested at a game in 2010. It’s not directly related to this post, but it kinda seems fiitting.

By now, the secret is out. The Bearcats have been downright putrid in the second half of AAC games, and everyone knows it.

[embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/792487951943004161[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/792493021560442880[/embed]

These stats are insane, particularly the one about UC losses. If Tuberville is let go in December, you better believe that will be a reason why. A fundamental part of coaching is knowing when and how to make adjustments. The Bearcats have been able to hang strong in the first half of each AAC game this year, but they go into the locker room and do nothing about it. Rather than make corrections to their game plan to gain an edge in the second half, it’s the other team that re-tools and runs Cincinnati off the field in the second half.

If you look at UC’s 1–4 AAC record, it comes as no surprise that 17 of those 23 second half points came in a single game. It just so happens that game was the only AAC game where UC outscored the opponent after halftime, and thusly, the only game the Bearcats won. This is how you end up with the garish 81–6 second half scoring figure in AAC losses.

Needless to say, this season’s second half numbers seem historically bad. I sat down to compare them to past UC teams and some other teams in the country this season.

If you’re looking at the full season, the Bearcats currently rank 123rd out of 128 teams in second half scoring. However, for this exercise, I’ll be focusing on conference games only. [Note: The stats below do not include overtime points, only third and fourth quarter.]

There are the second half numbers for this year’s team, last year’s team, the undefeated 2009 team, the 2003 season that got Minter fired, the best team in the AAC (Houston), the only winless team in the AAC (Tulane), arguably the worst team in FBS (Bowling Green), arguably the worst team in a major conference (Kansas), and the best team in FBS (Alabama).

A couple things to point out:

• I promise I didn’t plan it this way, but you’ll notice this year’s Bearcats are dead last in points scored (4.6) and points allowed (19.4) in the second half of conferences games.
• Putting up scoreless second halves is bad. Doing it three times in five games is absolutely awful. Minter’s 2003 team did it three times in eight games and he was fired. Florida Atlantic has the worst second half offense in the FBS, and they’ve only been shut out twice in their 0–4 start in C-USA. I can’t wrap my head around a modern Bearcats offense getting blanked in the second half of over half of their conference games.
• That 19.4 points allowed by the defense looks pretty bad, but we should remember that 21 of those points are the direct result of the offense giving up an interceptions for a touchdowns. Houston had two of them and USF had another. If you look at points that were allowed by the defense only, UC has surrendered 76 points, or 15.2 per game. That’s still not great, but it’s better. It also puts us nearly exactly where we were last season, so there’s this: UC’s second half defense is just as bad as 2015, but the offense is scoring two fewer touchdowns. What a mess. It’s incredible we aren’t winless in the AAC.
• While the second half ineptitude is the reason the Bearcats are having a miserable conference schedule in 2016, it’s not always a measure of team success. Last year, Cincinnati finished with a +24 point differential in second halves and outscored their opponents in five of eight conference games. That looks pretty good on paper, but it only translated to a 4–4 AAC record, good for a share of sixth place out of 11 teams.
• The Bearcats are on pace to score 37 total points in the second half of AAC games while allowing 155. That would be a -118 point differential. I can’t imagine this trend continuing in order to reach that finish, but I don’t know anymore. You have to think we’re approaching historic territory, and not the kind UC made during the Brian Kelly tenure.

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts On UC vs Temple, Good Lord Help Us

(Temple Football / Twitter)

I’ve got nothing.

See you at Nippert. Go Bearcats. #BeatBYU

Trip To Temple Serves As Early Challenge For Kiel

(Aaron Doster — USA Today Sports)

If you’re anything like me, last weekend’s victory over East Carolina has you reinvigorated. The 0–3 start in the AAC was abysmal, and I sensed that even the most diehard fans were having trouble feeling optimistic about the second half of the 2016 campaign. However, Saturday night felt like a watershed moment, and I think things are finally headed in the right direction.

The biggest reason why is the return of Gunner Kiel.

Fans clamored for Kiel for six games, and rightfully so. He finally got his window on Saturday night and he made the most of his first start of 2016, throwing for nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns without a turnover. Suddenly, the biggest question for a meandering 3–3 team has an answer, and nobody knows what to expect from the final five games.

The last time Gunner Kiel played in Philly was near the end of the 2014 season. The Bearcats needed a win in the final road game of the year to help secure a conference championship. The defense turned in a stellar performance to stuff the Owls in a 14–6 win. Kiel finished the afternoon with just 174 passing yards and a touchdown, but made no mistakes in a team victory that helped UC win a share of the 2014 AAC title.

In 2015, Temple sat at the beginning of the slate. The game was an unmitigated disaster for Kiel. He finished with a pair of touchdowns to go with four back-breaking interceptions. A late comeback fell short and the Bearcats dropped the conference opener. It was the beginning of the end for the 2015 season and Gunner Kiel’s tenure as a starter.

Saturday’s bout in Philadelphia against the Temple Owls will not be an easy one, and that’s why I’m excited for it. If the ECU performance was a fluke, we’ll know by Saturday night.

For the third time in three years, the Temple game will be a proving ground for Gunner. This year more than ever, the Owls will be ready. They rank 12th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of just 181 yards. They get after the quarterback like crazy, coming away with sacks on 10.7% of all plays, good for 3rd nationally. Over their last three games, that percentage jumps up to an absurd 19.1%, which is tops in the country by a wide margin. For comparison’s sake, East Carolina is easlily the worst sacking team in the FBS.

Gunner is a guy that seems to perform best when he’s allowed to sit back in the pocket and sling it. East Carolina let him do both of those things. Temple will allow him to do neither.

For a historically fragile QB who loves to rack up yards, a hard-hitting defense that chokes out the passing game is a daunting opponent. It’s even worse when you’ve just started your first game since November 2015.

If there’s a saving grace, it’s this: Temple has not intercepted many passes. The Bearcats defense ranks 4th nationally in opponent interception percentage at 5.3%. Temple’s defense, meanwhile, has picked off throws at a mediocre rate of 2.7%, putting them right in the middle of the pack in the country. The is great news for a guy that threw a handful of picks against this team last year.

If the offensive line can give Kiel time to find a target and get the ball out, we shouldn’t see a rash of turnovers again. He probably won’t duplicate Saturday’s 348-yard performance, but we could very well see a repeat of 2014’s 174-yard outing that earned a victory. For Kiel, minimizing mistakes will be the name of the game, and this Temple defense should let him do it.

The Owls are favored by a touchdown over the Bearcats. To get the victory, we’ll need another good game from the defense and more contributions from the running backs. Between the road atmosphere and the stingly Temple defense, it’ll be an early challenge for Kiel.

I think he’s up for it. I definitely am. Let’s find out what these Bearcats are made of.

POLL: Who Should The AAC Add In Fantasy Expansion?

(David J. Phillip/AP)

AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco was at AAC basketball media days today, and officially shot down the idea of expansion when asked about it. I understand where he’s coming from. He just dodged a bullet from the Big 12 that may have saved his conference. Right now, he’s happy for stability and probably doesn’t want to immediately go on the attack in expansion.

As armchair quarterback, coach, athletic director, and commissioner, I’m much more aggressive. I think we should add schools and add them now. At the very least, there are a handful of solid basketball-only candidates to add to our awkward 11-team basketball conference to form an even dozen. If you’re feeling crazy, there are a few football programs that could also be plucked from smaller conferences to bolster an AAC group that’s been much better than people originally predicted when it was formed.

So now I ask you: As AAC Commissioner, what are you doing in expansion to improve our conference?

Take the survey here. I’ll update in a few days with the smartest responses and then send them to Aresco to consider. (I lied about that second part.)

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts on UC vs ECU

(Aaron Doster — USA Today Sports Images)

The Bearcats (finally) got back in the win column on Saturday night with a much-needed victory over the Pirates of East Carolina. Both teams entered winless in the AAC, but it was the Bearcats that were able to turn the ship around with the help of some homecoming home field advantage. I have plenty to be happy about, so this will be more fun than I’m used to. Here are the highs and lows:

Positives:

• Gunner Kiel is back and firing. Finally, the fans got what they wanted and the redshirt senior got his first start of the season. Aside from being a feelgood moment, it paid dividends on the field. Kiel finished the night at 23-for-40 for 348 yards to go with four touchdown passes. This ECU team isn’t exactly the Steel Curtain, but it was still a very sturdy performance. In one night, Kiel quadrupled the total touchdown passes of freshman Ross Trail and threw more than half of sophomore Hayden Moore’s season total. More importantly, he did it without throwing an interception. I’m so proud of this kid. I can’t imagine this season has been easy, but he remained positive on the sidelines, waited for his shot, and made the most of it. Nobody knows why someone with this potential was been benched for the first half of the year, but he’s back now and appears to be in a groove.
• Khalil Lewis had his coming out party. There were many voters in my season predictions poll that saw Lewis doing this kind of thing all season. While I disagreed, I knew he had the potential, and I’m happy to see him cashing in on it so early. 11 catches for 150 yards and three touchdowns is a massive day for any receiver, especially a sophomore who entered with 352 yards and two touchdowns in his career. After three quiet games to open the season, Lewis has turned in four straight impressive outings. He’s now a proven threat, and if Saturday is any indication, he’s the favorite target of Kiel. Look out.
• Devin Gray continues to amaze. I knew Gray would be a nice contributor right out of the gate, but I didn’t imagine he’d be doing this. I don’t think many did. Straight out of junior college, he now leads the Bearcats in receiving yards through seven games. If you’re willing to round up on some 97- and 98-yard games, he now has four outings of 100 yards or better. He’s turning into Shaq Washington. He’s piling up catches and yardage, but is lagging behind in trips to the end zone, punching it in just once (vs Houston). I’m excited to see if his numbers see an uptick playing with Kiel, who proved to be a more reliable passer on Saturday than the Bearcats have had so far this season.
• The backs got their swagger back. After a rash of underwhelming outings culminating in the UConn stinker that saw the team run for a total of two yards, the running backs turned things around on Saturday against a lackluster ECU rush defense. Mike Boone had 14 carries for 88 yards and Tion Green had 15 carries for 71 yards. Neither scored a touchdown, but they did enough to open up the passing game for Kiel, who took advantage.
• The defense continues to be tough. On Saturday they allowed 503 yards to a tough Pirates offense. What matters is they didn’t break, allowing just 19 points and forcing three turnovers to offset the yardage surrendered. The play of the game came late in the fourth quarter. After a disappointing three-and-out by the Bearcats, ECU got the ball back, threatening to score and take the lead. On 4th-and-1, the defense stuffed running back James Summers to get the ball back to the offense, who responded with a touchdown to seal the victory.
• The turnover margin was positive again. The Bearcats forced three turnovers and didn’t give the ball away, which is likely the difference in this game. The turnover margin per game is now +0.7, which is good for 26th in FBS. Last season it was -1.5, which was 124th (out of 128 teams.) Part of this is due to the offense playing smarter, but it’s mostly a defensive effort. The Bearcats defense is 7th in the country in takeaways per game (2.5). Last year they were 113th. That will make a huge difference, especially when your offense is doing enough to win like they did yesterday.

Negatives:

• Where on earth was this six games ago? Tuberville knew this was coming when he gave the start to Kiel, and now we’re experiencing it. After the team struggled through six games largely due to bad quarterback play, we finally got to see the proven senior that everyone has been begging for, and he turns in the best game of the season and picks up the first conference win. Say what you want about injuries and practice reps and playbook knowledge, I’ve been saying that there’s no way I’m willing to believe that a freshman deserves to start over a proven senior. Saturday proved it, as Kiel did more in his first half than Trail did in two games. I still don’t understand it, but I’m happy we finally get to see the veteran instead of the over-his-head freshman or the hobbled-and-inconsistent sophomore.
• Too many yards. I mentioned this above, but 503 yards is just too many. Timely takeaways and a good outing from Kiel saved them, but you can’t bank on those against tougher competition. This ECU offense ranks 18th nationally with 485 yards per game, so Saturday wasn’t super alarming to me. However, I worry about that number coming from a defense that looked like the bright spot for six games. We need them to remain sharp if we’re going to turn the season around, and allowing 503 yards is not a great sign.
• Whatever this is.
• The penalty that brought back the 100-yard kick return by Boone. It didn’t end up making a difference, but I was excited to see the first kick-off returned for a touchdown since Ralph David Abernathy IV in the 2011 Liberty Bowl vs Vanderbilt.

Saturday was the first time I felt really good about a game since Week 2 against Purdue. Following that win, the Bearcats went 1–3 with the only victory coming against lowly Miami. There wasn’t much to feel good about until Saturday happened.

The fans needed that. The players needed that. Lord knows the coach needed that. More than anything, Gunner Kiel needed that. The #GunShow is back, and I couldn’t be more excited to see how he fares next weekend against one of the country’s stingiest pass defenses. Temple is ranked 13th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, and they’ll provide an early test for Kiel. I think he’s up for it.

Watching Kelce: A Recap of “Catching Kelce” Episode 2

Last week brought us the premiere of Catching Kelce, a new reality dating show starring former Bearcats standout (and current Kansas City Chiefs tight end) Travis Kelce. Episode 1 was full of the types of shenanigans reality TV lovers have come to expect from these shows, and I wrote that I (shamefully) enjoyed it. I’m interested to see where Episode 2 takes us, when they’re not packing 90 minutes of television with drama and plot twists.

As always, I’m just going to hit the bullet points on this one and throw my weekly rankings at the end. Let’s go:

• This barbecue pool party is making me miss summer already. Not cool, Catching Kelce. Not cool. The Kelce brothers getting some hardcore cornhole on is a taste of Cincinnati on the west coast.
• V Rich is my new least favorite contestant after Connecticut’s elimination last week. She is unbearable and got on my nerves throughout this episode.
• #JasonKelceBellyFlops — I think I said this after Episode 1, but I really hope he’s a regular for the whole season, because he adds a lot.
• Travis got cheated on his junior and senior years at UC. Reveal yourself, vile woman.
• West Virginia mentioned she hasn’t gotten much time with Travis and hopes he noticed her. I don’t think I’ve noticed her. Was she on here last week? UPDATE: She survives. Barely.
• The “invite one girl on a date and she gets to pick five others” is an exciting concept because it adds some strategy. I almost feel like you should pick the five girls who are either shy or annoying and can make yourself look better, right? But then it also probably makes good sense to get some contestants on your side who can return the favor in the future. Oh, dating show drama.
• I like inviting Maya on the date because she’s a strong candidate who we don’t know much about. No sense inviting a girl like Victoria who has already stepped out in front of the pack. UPDATE: Maya has shown herself to be annoying. I guess it’s good she was picked for the date, because I wouldn’t have known, otherwise.
• For the date, Maya picked her best friend along with four girls to sabotage. She accidentally picked maybe the three most athletic girls on the show… and they’re shooting a fitness video. Oops.
• Travis going Richard Simmons is too good.
• hahaha “group fitness”
• Lola is a total weirdo in this episode. I’m happy Travis loves the elliptical, but he should’ve told her. She has a weird hang-up about it and I’d like to see her double down on making it a dealbreaker, like she claims it is. UPDATE: Haha he sent her home.
• I love how Maya is upset now that her sabotage plan has backfired. First these girls were no threat, now they’re kissing Travis on the date and you’re angry? Pick a side, lady. Don’t be mad. You’re the one who invited her.
• Jenny seems cool. Most girls would not have gone out of their way to help another contestant, but Jenny delivered Anika’s letter to Travis. That being said, it totally came at her own cost. You can’t waste one-on-one time with Travis by talking about another girl. UPDATE: Nooooo he sent her home. Poor Jenny.
• I still like Anika. I can’t take her seriously as a contestant, but as a member of the show, she’s fantastic. She’s getting under the skin of all of my least favorite girls, and it’s beautiful to watch. Why on earth does she have an air horn??
• Veronica was the perfect VIP date choice. I think the winner of this show is going to be the one that can be confident and also avoid confrontation with other girls. Veronica, Lauren, and Avery fit that mold. I think Victoria is my leader, but she’s making way too much noise and it’s only a matter of time before it bites her.
• Jessica is the most attractive girl he’s sent home so far. RIP to Jessica’s Catching Kelce career. Not sure why she was cut instead of the other two she was left with at the end. She’s made more of an effort, is more attractive, and is far less obnoxoius. Oh well. Dating shows are unpredictable, folks.

Official OhVarsity! Catching Kelce Top 5 (Week 1)

1. Rhode Island (Victoria) [8 total points]
2. New Jersey (Veronica) [9 total points]
3. Missouri (Lauren) [3 total points]
4. Colorado (Avery) [6 total points]
5. Minnesota (Anika) [2 total points]

Things Bearcats Football Is Older Than

1893 Bearcats football team (UC Libraries)

Bearcats football took the field for the first time on October 23, 1885 in a game against Mt. Auburn. 1885 is a long time ago, and UC football is older than every FBS team but nine. As an ardent lover of old things and Bearcat one-upmanship, I had to seize the opportunity.

The ‘Cats have a bye week and UC football’s birthday is just around the corner, so I figured I’d make a short list of things that came right after Cincinnati football did:

• Footballs in Cincinnati. This is one of my favorites. The 1927 issue of The Cincinnatian lays out the early days of Bearcats football, and credits Dr. Arch Carson for founding the team. Among other contributions, after all, “it was he who sent away to a big commercial house in the east for the first football, because there were none in the city of Cincinnati at that time.” That’s right. In 1885, footballs themselves weren’t even a thing in Cincy, but UC football was. (Also our colors were Blue and Brown at the time.)
• 12 states. North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Washington, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Alaska, and Hawaii all came after UC played its first football game.
• Coca-Cola. John Pemberton began serving it at his drugstore in Columbus, Georgia in May 1886.
• The Statue of Liberty was dedicated in October 1886, just over a year after UC football’s first game.
• Ballpoint pens. The ballpoint pen was invented by John Loud in October 1888.
• Kodak cameras. The first Kodak box camera was invented in 1888, bringing simple and inexpensive photography to the world.
• Inflatable tires. John Boyd Dunlop of Scotland invented the inflatable tire in 1888.
• Dishwashers. The first dishwasher was invented by Josephine Garis in 1889.
• The Eiffel Tower was opened in Paris in March 1889.
• The zipper was invented by Whitcomb Judson in 1891.
• The radio. The invention of radio is a disputed thing, but the internet credits a variety of people for creating radio some time between 1893 and 1900.
• Airplanes. The Wright Brothers’ infamous flight in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina was in 1903.

So now if you were a real loser you could say something like, “Hey, do you know why UC’s first football uniforms didn’t have zippers? Because they weren’t invented yet.”

You’d probably come off really smug but it’s worth a shot anyway.

Tuberville’s Contract Extension Details Are Out, Not Much Has Changed

(BuckeyeXtra.com)

After some FOIA requests by local media, UC has coughed up contract details on the extension Tommy Tuberville agreed to in April and signed on October 1, presumably just hours before the ‘Cats got their skulls smashed by USF at Nippert. I won’t debate the merits of this extension, because it makes very little sense and only makes me angry. Instead, let’s look at how we can get out of it:

Tuberville’s old contract included a buyout provision that sat at $1 million until February 1, at which point it would’ve dropped to $550,000. The new contract’s buyout is $2.4 million until December 6. On December 7, it drops to $1.5 million.

[embed]https://twitter.com/vogel_wlwt/status/785945106155245568[/embed]

He’s (Still) Not Getting Fired Before December

Don’t let the $2.4 million worry you. It sounds like a lot of money, but it’s absolutely meaningless. That was Tuberville’s assurance that he wouldn’t get fired during this season. Yes, it means he won’t be fired before the season is over. However, he wouldn’t have been fired anyway. Coaching changes rarely happen mid-season in college, and basically never happen at Cincinnati. Anyone expecting to hear news of a coaching move this week was fooling themselves.

Here’s What’s New

The big change here is this: Under his old contract, Tuberville’s buyout following the season was $1 million. Under the new contract, it’s $1.5 million.

I know the $550,000 number is appetizing, but that’s kind of another meaningless number. UC never would’ve made it that far. It didn’t drop to that number until February 1, and you can’t fire your coach and start the hiring process in February. That’s too late.

The Bad News

UC has to pay $1.5 million to fire Tuberville in December instead of $1 million.

The Good News

Moving the date in which the buyout drops from February 1 all the way up to December 7 is an intentional move on UC’s part. Again, I don’t understand why this extension was offered in the first place, but the decrease in buyout money in December was written with a firing in mind.

Honestly, I almost like the new extension details because they incentivize a coaching change immediately following the season, which is the most likely time to make a move anyways. Rather than entering this offseason and wondering if UC will make a quick move (and fire Tubs in December) or wait until February (and save $450k), now they have every incentive to drop the ax quickly. If Tuberville doesn’t get fired this December, he isn’t going anywhere until the end of the 2017 season. The new deal is very straightforward in that regard. We now have some clarity.

The Bottom Line

Old contract or new, the most likely time of a firing has always been December. What would’ve cost UC $1 million will now cost them $1.5 million. That’s their fault, and they’ll have to deal with shelling out that extra cash. However, the new contract gives us a D-Day. Circle December 7, 2016 on your calendar. The UC athletic department has every reason to drop Tubs and throw themselves into the 2016 coaching carousel with the rest of the college football world, and now we have a hard and fast date to watch.

UPDATE: Since I’ve seen people saying both, I should clarify that I’m not sure if “D-Day” is December 7 or December 8. The Vogel tweet says “BEFORE December 7” not “December 7 or before.” It sounds like the buyout drops starting on December 7. I haven’t seen the contract to know what the exact wording is, but it’s my impression that the first day UC can afford to fire Tuberville is December 7. I may be wrong, in which case it’s December 8.

Not that it really matters.