Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts On UC vs UCF, The Continuing Famine

(Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

The Bearcats lost 24–3 to fall to 4–6 on the season. They’ll need to get past two good teams if they want to make a bowl game this year. I think I’m just about officially broken. I watched every minute of the game today, and I’m not giving up, but holding onto hope and optimism has become essentially impossible. I just want these guys to finish well, whatever that may be.

Positives:

• Dredrick Snelson. The guy who scored UCF’s first touchdown is named Dredrick Snelson, which is one of the best names I’ve heard in a while.

Negatives:

• The offense is downright anemic. The streak without a touchdown stretched to 10 quarters, which is legitimately impossible for me to imagine. I’ve always known the UC offense to be the type to rack up yards, if not points. How we’ve managed to fall so quickly, I don’t know. If my math is correct, that’s just about 154 minutes of game clock since the last touchdown. To make matters worse, the Bearcats have scored just six points total in that stretch.
• The Bearcats are the worst second half team in America. I’ll update this when I get complete stats for the rest of FBS play. After last week, UC was tied for dead last in second half scoring with Vanderbilt. Today, they threw up another goose egg, so it’s only going to get worse. In Cincinnati’s six losses this season, they’re being outscored 105–6 in the second half. That’s incomprehensible.
• The Bearcats keep getting blown out. During the Tuberville tenure, the Bearcats have lost to unranked opponents by at least 21 points on nine occasions. That matches the total that Rick Minter, Mark Dantonio, Brian Kelly, and Butch Jones shared from 2000 through 2012. The program is falling fast, and quickly getting lapped by weaker teams, as evidenced by UCF securing bowl eligibility against UC today after going winless in 2015.
• The national media is finally noticing. I suppose this could be a good or bad thing, but I generally would rather not have all media attention towards my alma mater centered around how quickly the football program went from relevance to turmoil. Between the loss last week, Tuberville’s blow up at a fan, and the shoddy effort today, it seems like just about all media outlets are calling for a coaching change in Clifton. I agree, but the negative publicity is still hard to watch.
• Attendance next week is going to be brutal. This is going to be the hardest part for me. There are a lot of seniors on this team who I’ll look back on fondly. Gunner Kiel, Tion Green, Nate Cole, Alex Pace, Zach Edwards, etc. These guys gave their blood, sweat, and tears to my alma mater, and I just know that they’ll be playing out their last game in front of an empty stadium after suffering through a pair of brutal seasons to close their careers. If you have a ticket, please show up or give it to somebody who will. These kids deserve one last effort from us as fans.

See you at Nippert. Go Bearcats. Beat Memphis.

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts on UC vs BYU (“Go To Hell, Get A Job” Edition)

(

Keenan Singleton on Twitter

)

I’m running out of things to say, so I’ll keep this short and sweet.

The Bearcats got absolutely choked out by BYU yesterday, and now own a losing record in November for the first time since 2010 and the second time since 2005. Not only that, but based on what I’ve seen from this Bearcats team and what I’ve seen from the teams left on the schedule, I don’t see us winning another game. Left on the docket is a road game against a solid UCF team, a home finale (that could be an attendance catastrophe) against a pretty good Memphis team, and a trip to Tulsa to face a 7–2 Golden Hurricane team that will be trying to close the year at home with a win for their seniors.

I pray I’m wrong, but I don’t have enough evidence to call this a bowl team.

Positives:

• Another respectable defensive performance. Despite BYU’s pedestrian record, they’re a pretty good team. The Bearcats held them to 20 points on 337 yards. QB Taysom Hill went 15-for-25 for 130 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. When you’re looking for any positive, that’s good enough. I feel like this defense as a whole has outplayed themselves. We should probably be worse than we’ve been.
• Zach Edwards got his interception, joining the INT party the defense has had this season. In what has to have been an excruciang junior and senior year for Edwards, I’m happy for him each time he makes a play.
• Tion Green had a nice outing. Because UC trailed for most of the afternoon, he only got 16 carries, but he took those 82 yards for 5.1 yards per carry. He also had five catches for 22 yards.
• Devin Gray is still really good. Man, I love this kid. He had seven catches for 105 yards. If you can round up a couple yards in a few games, that’s his fifth 100-yard outing in his first nine games at the FBS level. Not many guys do that.

Negatives:

• 90% of what happened yesterday. Yeah:

[embed]https://twitter.com/KJMSingleton/status/795057563314384896[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795263317698875392[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795263961272881153[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795265221799661568[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795266521652150276[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/795268627368988672[/embed]

The national media is finally noticing what’s happening in Cincinnati.

[embed]https://twitter.com/RealNRB/status/795032213335187456[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/edsbs/status/795064719514173440[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/PaulMyerberg/status/795074787978657792[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/status/795065195752255489[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/795065836025221120[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/DustinFox37/status/795067885404176388[/embed]

I think I speak for everyone when I say that I just want this season to be over, one way or another. The Bearcats are 11–11 since the start of last year, and I think we’re all over it. I’ll be at Nippert to see the Bearcats play Memphis in two weeks, but that’s more out of love and loyalty than excitement. Get me to December so we can wipe the slate clean.

Go Bearcats. Beat UCF.

By The Numbers: Second Half Squander

The Bearcat got arrested at a game in 2010. It’s not directly related to this post, but it kinda seems fiitting.

By now, the secret is out. The Bearcats have been downright putrid in the second half of AAC games, and everyone knows it.

[embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/792487951943004161[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/792493021560442880[/embed]

These stats are insane, particularly the one about UC losses. If Tuberville is let go in December, you better believe that will be a reason why. A fundamental part of coaching is knowing when and how to make adjustments. The Bearcats have been able to hang strong in the first half of each AAC game this year, but they go into the locker room and do nothing about it. Rather than make corrections to their game plan to gain an edge in the second half, it’s the other team that re-tools and runs Cincinnati off the field in the second half.

If you look at UC’s 1–4 AAC record, it comes as no surprise that 17 of those 23 second half points came in a single game. It just so happens that game was the only AAC game where UC outscored the opponent after halftime, and thusly, the only game the Bearcats won. This is how you end up with the garish 81–6 second half scoring figure in AAC losses.

Needless to say, this season’s second half numbers seem historically bad. I sat down to compare them to past UC teams and some other teams in the country this season.

If you’re looking at the full season, the Bearcats currently rank 123rd out of 128 teams in second half scoring. However, for this exercise, I’ll be focusing on conference games only. [Note: The stats below do not include overtime points, only third and fourth quarter.]

There are the second half numbers for this year’s team, last year’s team, the undefeated 2009 team, the 2003 season that got Minter fired, the best team in the AAC (Houston), the only winless team in the AAC (Tulane), arguably the worst team in FBS (Bowling Green), arguably the worst team in a major conference (Kansas), and the best team in FBS (Alabama).

A couple things to point out:

• I promise I didn’t plan it this way, but you’ll notice this year’s Bearcats are dead last in points scored (4.6) and points allowed (19.4) in the second half of conferences games.
• Putting up scoreless second halves is bad. Doing it three times in five games is absolutely awful. Minter’s 2003 team did it three times in eight games and he was fired. Florida Atlantic has the worst second half offense in the FBS, and they’ve only been shut out twice in their 0–4 start in C-USA. I can’t wrap my head around a modern Bearcats offense getting blanked in the second half of over half of their conference games.
• That 19.4 points allowed by the defense looks pretty bad, but we should remember that 21 of those points are the direct result of the offense giving up an interceptions for a touchdowns. Houston had two of them and USF had another. If you look at points that were allowed by the defense only, UC has surrendered 76 points, or 15.2 per game. That’s still not great, but it’s better. It also puts us nearly exactly where we were last season, so there’s this: UC’s second half defense is just as bad as 2015, but the offense is scoring two fewer touchdowns. What a mess. It’s incredible we aren’t winless in the AAC.
• While the second half ineptitude is the reason the Bearcats are having a miserable conference schedule in 2016, it’s not always a measure of team success. Last year, Cincinnati finished with a +24 point differential in second halves and outscored their opponents in five of eight conference games. That looks pretty good on paper, but it only translated to a 4–4 AAC record, good for a share of sixth place out of 11 teams.
• The Bearcats are on pace to score 37 total points in the second half of AAC games while allowing 155. That would be a -118 point differential. I can’t imagine this trend continuing in order to reach that finish, but I don’t know anymore. You have to think we’re approaching historic territory, and not the kind UC made during the Brian Kelly tenure.

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts On UC vs Temple, Good Lord Help Us

(Temple Football / Twitter)

I’ve got nothing.

See you at Nippert. Go Bearcats. #BeatBYU

Trip To Temple Serves As Early Challenge For Kiel

(Aaron Doster — USA Today Sports)

If you’re anything like me, last weekend’s victory over East Carolina has you reinvigorated. The 0–3 start in the AAC was abysmal, and I sensed that even the most diehard fans were having trouble feeling optimistic about the second half of the 2016 campaign. However, Saturday night felt like a watershed moment, and I think things are finally headed in the right direction.

The biggest reason why is the return of Gunner Kiel.

Fans clamored for Kiel for six games, and rightfully so. He finally got his window on Saturday night and he made the most of his first start of 2016, throwing for nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns without a turnover. Suddenly, the biggest question for a meandering 3–3 team has an answer, and nobody knows what to expect from the final five games.

The last time Gunner Kiel played in Philly was near the end of the 2014 season. The Bearcats needed a win in the final road game of the year to help secure a conference championship. The defense turned in a stellar performance to stuff the Owls in a 14–6 win. Kiel finished the afternoon with just 174 passing yards and a touchdown, but made no mistakes in a team victory that helped UC win a share of the 2014 AAC title.

In 2015, Temple sat at the beginning of the slate. The game was an unmitigated disaster for Kiel. He finished with a pair of touchdowns to go with four back-breaking interceptions. A late comeback fell short and the Bearcats dropped the conference opener. It was the beginning of the end for the 2015 season and Gunner Kiel’s tenure as a starter.

Saturday’s bout in Philadelphia against the Temple Owls will not be an easy one, and that’s why I’m excited for it. If the ECU performance was a fluke, we’ll know by Saturday night.

For the third time in three years, the Temple game will be a proving ground for Gunner. This year more than ever, the Owls will be ready. They rank 12th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of just 181 yards. They get after the quarterback like crazy, coming away with sacks on 10.7% of all plays, good for 3rd nationally. Over their last three games, that percentage jumps up to an absurd 19.1%, which is tops in the country by a wide margin. For comparison’s sake, East Carolina is easlily the worst sacking team in the FBS.

Gunner is a guy that seems to perform best when he’s allowed to sit back in the pocket and sling it. East Carolina let him do both of those things. Temple will allow him to do neither.

For a historically fragile QB who loves to rack up yards, a hard-hitting defense that chokes out the passing game is a daunting opponent. It’s even worse when you’ve just started your first game since November 2015.

If there’s a saving grace, it’s this: Temple has not intercepted many passes. The Bearcats defense ranks 4th nationally in opponent interception percentage at 5.3%. Temple’s defense, meanwhile, has picked off throws at a mediocre rate of 2.7%, putting them right in the middle of the pack in the country. The is great news for a guy that threw a handful of picks against this team last year.

If the offensive line can give Kiel time to find a target and get the ball out, we shouldn’t see a rash of turnovers again. He probably won’t duplicate Saturday’s 348-yard performance, but we could very well see a repeat of 2014’s 174-yard outing that earned a victory. For Kiel, minimizing mistakes will be the name of the game, and this Temple defense should let him do it.

The Owls are favored by a touchdown over the Bearcats. To get the victory, we’ll need another good game from the defense and more contributions from the running backs. Between the road atmosphere and the stingly Temple defense, it’ll be an early challenge for Kiel.

I think he’s up for it. I definitely am. Let’s find out what these Bearcats are made of.

POLL: Who Should The AAC Add In Fantasy Expansion?

(David J. Phillip/AP)

AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco was at AAC basketball media days today, and officially shot down the idea of expansion when asked about it. I understand where he’s coming from. He just dodged a bullet from the Big 12 that may have saved his conference. Right now, he’s happy for stability and probably doesn’t want to immediately go on the attack in expansion.

As armchair quarterback, coach, athletic director, and commissioner, I’m much more aggressive. I think we should add schools and add them now. At the very least, there are a handful of solid basketball-only candidates to add to our awkward 11-team basketball conference to form an even dozen. If you’re feeling crazy, there are a few football programs that could also be plucked from smaller conferences to bolster an AAC group that’s been much better than people originally predicted when it was formed.

So now I ask you: As AAC Commissioner, what are you doing in expansion to improve our conference?

Take the survey here. I’ll update in a few days with the smartest responses and then send them to Aresco to consider. (I lied about that second part.)

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts on UC vs ECU

(Aaron Doster — USA Today Sports Images)

The Bearcats (finally) got back in the win column on Saturday night with a much-needed victory over the Pirates of East Carolina. Both teams entered winless in the AAC, but it was the Bearcats that were able to turn the ship around with the help of some homecoming home field advantage. I have plenty to be happy about, so this will be more fun than I’m used to. Here are the highs and lows:

Positives:

• Gunner Kiel is back and firing. Finally, the fans got what they wanted and the redshirt senior got his first start of the season. Aside from being a feelgood moment, it paid dividends on the field. Kiel finished the night at 23-for-40 for 348 yards to go with four touchdown passes. This ECU team isn’t exactly the Steel Curtain, but it was still a very sturdy performance. In one night, Kiel quadrupled the total touchdown passes of freshman Ross Trail and threw more than half of sophomore Hayden Moore’s season total. More importantly, he did it without throwing an interception. I’m so proud of this kid. I can’t imagine this season has been easy, but he remained positive on the sidelines, waited for his shot, and made the most of it. Nobody knows why someone with this potential was been benched for the first half of the year, but he’s back now and appears to be in a groove.
• Khalil Lewis had his coming out party. There were many voters in my season predictions poll that saw Lewis doing this kind of thing all season. While I disagreed, I knew he had the potential, and I’m happy to see him cashing in on it so early. 11 catches for 150 yards and three touchdowns is a massive day for any receiver, especially a sophomore who entered with 352 yards and two touchdowns in his career. After three quiet games to open the season, Lewis has turned in four straight impressive outings. He’s now a proven threat, and if Saturday is any indication, he’s the favorite target of Kiel. Look out.
• Devin Gray continues to amaze. I knew Gray would be a nice contributor right out of the gate, but I didn’t imagine he’d be doing this. I don’t think many did. Straight out of junior college, he now leads the Bearcats in receiving yards through seven games. If you’re willing to round up on some 97- and 98-yard games, he now has four outings of 100 yards or better. He’s turning into Shaq Washington. He’s piling up catches and yardage, but is lagging behind in trips to the end zone, punching it in just once (vs Houston). I’m excited to see if his numbers see an uptick playing with Kiel, who proved to be a more reliable passer on Saturday than the Bearcats have had so far this season.
• The backs got their swagger back. After a rash of underwhelming outings culminating in the UConn stinker that saw the team run for a total of two yards, the running backs turned things around on Saturday against a lackluster ECU rush defense. Mike Boone had 14 carries for 88 yards and Tion Green had 15 carries for 71 yards. Neither scored a touchdown, but they did enough to open up the passing game for Kiel, who took advantage.
• The defense continues to be tough. On Saturday they allowed 503 yards to a tough Pirates offense. What matters is they didn’t break, allowing just 19 points and forcing three turnovers to offset the yardage surrendered. The play of the game came late in the fourth quarter. After a disappointing three-and-out by the Bearcats, ECU got the ball back, threatening to score and take the lead. On 4th-and-1, the defense stuffed running back James Summers to get the ball back to the offense, who responded with a touchdown to seal the victory.
• The turnover margin was positive again. The Bearcats forced three turnovers and didn’t give the ball away, which is likely the difference in this game. The turnover margin per game is now +0.7, which is good for 26th in FBS. Last season it was -1.5, which was 124th (out of 128 teams.) Part of this is due to the offense playing smarter, but it’s mostly a defensive effort. The Bearcats defense is 7th in the country in takeaways per game (2.5). Last year they were 113th. That will make a huge difference, especially when your offense is doing enough to win like they did yesterday.

Negatives:

• Where on earth was this six games ago? Tuberville knew this was coming when he gave the start to Kiel, and now we’re experiencing it. After the team struggled through six games largely due to bad quarterback play, we finally got to see the proven senior that everyone has been begging for, and he turns in the best game of the season and picks up the first conference win. Say what you want about injuries and practice reps and playbook knowledge, I’ve been saying that there’s no way I’m willing to believe that a freshman deserves to start over a proven senior. Saturday proved it, as Kiel did more in his first half than Trail did in two games. I still don’t understand it, but I’m happy we finally get to see the veteran instead of the over-his-head freshman or the hobbled-and-inconsistent sophomore.
• Too many yards. I mentioned this above, but 503 yards is just too many. Timely takeaways and a good outing from Kiel saved them, but you can’t bank on those against tougher competition. This ECU offense ranks 18th nationally with 485 yards per game, so Saturday wasn’t super alarming to me. However, I worry about that number coming from a defense that looked like the bright spot for six games. We need them to remain sharp if we’re going to turn the season around, and allowing 503 yards is not a great sign.
• Whatever this is.
• The penalty that brought back the 100-yard kick return by Boone. It didn’t end up making a difference, but I was excited to see the first kick-off returned for a touchdown since Ralph David Abernathy IV in the 2011 Liberty Bowl vs Vanderbilt.

Saturday was the first time I felt really good about a game since Week 2 against Purdue. Following that win, the Bearcats went 1–3 with the only victory coming against lowly Miami. There wasn’t much to feel good about until Saturday happened.

The fans needed that. The players needed that. Lord knows the coach needed that. More than anything, Gunner Kiel needed that. The #GunShow is back, and I couldn’t be more excited to see how he fares next weekend against one of the country’s stingiest pass defenses. Temple is ranked 13th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, and they’ll provide an early test for Kiel. I think he’s up for it.

Watching Kelce: A Recap of “Catching Kelce” Episode 2

Last week brought us the premiere of Catching Kelce, a new reality dating show starring former Bearcats standout (and current Kansas City Chiefs tight end) Travis Kelce. Episode 1 was full of the types of shenanigans reality TV lovers have come to expect from these shows, and I wrote that I (shamefully) enjoyed it. I’m interested to see where Episode 2 takes us, when they’re not packing 90 minutes of television with drama and plot twists.

As always, I’m just going to hit the bullet points on this one and throw my weekly rankings at the end. Let’s go:

• This barbecue pool party is making me miss summer already. Not cool, Catching Kelce. Not cool. The Kelce brothers getting some hardcore cornhole on is a taste of Cincinnati on the west coast.
• V Rich is my new least favorite contestant after Connecticut’s elimination last week. She is unbearable and got on my nerves throughout this episode.
• #JasonKelceBellyFlops — I think I said this after Episode 1, but I really hope he’s a regular for the whole season, because he adds a lot.
• Travis got cheated on his junior and senior years at UC. Reveal yourself, vile woman.
• West Virginia mentioned she hasn’t gotten much time with Travis and hopes he noticed her. I don’t think I’ve noticed her. Was she on here last week? UPDATE: She survives. Barely.
• The “invite one girl on a date and she gets to pick five others” is an exciting concept because it adds some strategy. I almost feel like you should pick the five girls who are either shy or annoying and can make yourself look better, right? But then it also probably makes good sense to get some contestants on your side who can return the favor in the future. Oh, dating show drama.
• I like inviting Maya on the date because she’s a strong candidate who we don’t know much about. No sense inviting a girl like Victoria who has already stepped out in front of the pack. UPDATE: Maya has shown herself to be annoying. I guess it’s good she was picked for the date, because I wouldn’t have known, otherwise.
• For the date, Maya picked her best friend along with four girls to sabotage. She accidentally picked maybe the three most athletic girls on the show… and they’re shooting a fitness video. Oops.
• Travis going Richard Simmons is too good.
• hahaha “group fitness”
• Lola is a total weirdo in this episode. I’m happy Travis loves the elliptical, but he should’ve told her. She has a weird hang-up about it and I’d like to see her double down on making it a dealbreaker, like she claims it is. UPDATE: Haha he sent her home.
• I love how Maya is upset now that her sabotage plan has backfired. First these girls were no threat, now they’re kissing Travis on the date and you’re angry? Pick a side, lady. Don’t be mad. You’re the one who invited her.
• Jenny seems cool. Most girls would not have gone out of their way to help another contestant, but Jenny delivered Anika’s letter to Travis. That being said, it totally came at her own cost. You can’t waste one-on-one time with Travis by talking about another girl. UPDATE: Nooooo he sent her home. Poor Jenny.
• I still like Anika. I can’t take her seriously as a contestant, but as a member of the show, she’s fantastic. She’s getting under the skin of all of my least favorite girls, and it’s beautiful to watch. Why on earth does she have an air horn??
• Veronica was the perfect VIP date choice. I think the winner of this show is going to be the one that can be confident and also avoid confrontation with other girls. Veronica, Lauren, and Avery fit that mold. I think Victoria is my leader, but she’s making way too much noise and it’s only a matter of time before it bites her.
• Jessica is the most attractive girl he’s sent home so far. RIP to Jessica’s Catching Kelce career. Not sure why she was cut instead of the other two she was left with at the end. She’s made more of an effort, is more attractive, and is far less obnoxoius. Oh well. Dating shows are unpredictable, folks.

Official OhVarsity! Catching Kelce Top 5 (Week 1)

1. Rhode Island (Victoria) [8 total points]
2. New Jersey (Veronica) [9 total points]
3. Missouri (Lauren) [3 total points]
4. Colorado (Avery) [6 total points]
5. Minnesota (Anika) [2 total points]

Things Bearcats Football Is Older Than

1893 Bearcats football team (UC Libraries)

Bearcats football took the field for the first time on October 23, 1885 in a game against Mt. Auburn. 1885 is a long time ago, and UC football is older than every FBS team but nine. As an ardent lover of old things and Bearcat one-upmanship, I had to seize the opportunity.

The ‘Cats have a bye week and UC football’s birthday is just around the corner, so I figured I’d make a short list of things that came right after Cincinnati football did:

• Footballs in Cincinnati. This is one of my favorites. The 1927 issue of The Cincinnatian lays out the early days of Bearcats football, and credits Dr. Arch Carson for founding the team. Among other contributions, after all, “it was he who sent away to a big commercial house in the east for the first football, because there were none in the city of Cincinnati at that time.” That’s right. In 1885, footballs themselves weren’t even a thing in Cincy, but UC football was. (Also our colors were Blue and Brown at the time.)
• 12 states. North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Washington, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Alaska, and Hawaii all came after UC played its first football game.
• Coca-Cola. John Pemberton began serving it at his drugstore in Columbus, Georgia in May 1886.
• The Statue of Liberty was dedicated in October 1886, just over a year after UC football’s first game.
• Ballpoint pens. The ballpoint pen was invented by John Loud in October 1888.
• Kodak cameras. The first Kodak box camera was invented in 1888, bringing simple and inexpensive photography to the world.
• Inflatable tires. John Boyd Dunlop of Scotland invented the inflatable tire in 1888.
• Dishwashers. The first dishwasher was invented by Josephine Garis in 1889.
• The Eiffel Tower was opened in Paris in March 1889.
• The zipper was invented by Whitcomb Judson in 1891.
• The radio. The invention of radio is a disputed thing, but the internet credits a variety of people for creating radio some time between 1893 and 1900.
• Airplanes. The Wright Brothers’ infamous flight in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina was in 1903.

So now if you were a real loser you could say something like, “Hey, do you know why UC’s first football uniforms didn’t have zippers? Because they weren’t invented yet.”

You’d probably come off really smug but it’s worth a shot anyway.

Tuberville’s Contract Extension Details Are Out, Not Much Has Changed

(BuckeyeXtra.com)

After some FOIA requests by local media, UC has coughed up contract details on the extension Tommy Tuberville agreed to in April and signed on October 1, presumably just hours before the ‘Cats got their skulls smashed by USF at Nippert. I won’t debate the merits of this extension, because it makes very little sense and only makes me angry. Instead, let’s look at how we can get out of it:

Tuberville’s old contract included a buyout provision that sat at $1 million until February 1, at which point it would’ve dropped to $550,000. The new contract’s buyout is $2.4 million until December 6. On December 7, it drops to $1.5 million.

[embed]https://twitter.com/vogel_wlwt/status/785945106155245568[/embed]

He’s (Still) Not Getting Fired Before December

Don’t let the $2.4 million worry you. It sounds like a lot of money, but it’s absolutely meaningless. That was Tuberville’s assurance that he wouldn’t get fired during this season. Yes, it means he won’t be fired before the season is over. However, he wouldn’t have been fired anyway. Coaching changes rarely happen mid-season in college, and basically never happen at Cincinnati. Anyone expecting to hear news of a coaching move this week was fooling themselves.

Here’s What’s New

The big change here is this: Under his old contract, Tuberville’s buyout following the season was $1 million. Under the new contract, it’s $1.5 million.

I know the $550,000 number is appetizing, but that’s kind of another meaningless number. UC never would’ve made it that far. It didn’t drop to that number until February 1, and you can’t fire your coach and start the hiring process in February. That’s too late.

The Bad News

UC has to pay $1.5 million to fire Tuberville in December instead of $1 million.

The Good News

Moving the date in which the buyout drops from February 1 all the way up to December 7 is an intentional move on UC’s part. Again, I don’t understand why this extension was offered in the first place, but the decrease in buyout money in December was written with a firing in mind.

Honestly, I almost like the new extension details because they incentivize a coaching change immediately following the season, which is the most likely time to make a move anyways. Rather than entering this offseason and wondering if UC will make a quick move (and fire Tubs in December) or wait until February (and save $450k), now they have every incentive to drop the ax quickly. If Tuberville doesn’t get fired this December, he isn’t going anywhere until the end of the 2017 season. The new deal is very straightforward in that regard. We now have some clarity.

The Bottom Line

Old contract or new, the most likely time of a firing has always been December. What would’ve cost UC $1 million will now cost them $1.5 million. That’s their fault, and they’ll have to deal with shelling out that extra cash. However, the new contract gives us a D-Day. Circle December 7, 2016 on your calendar. The UC athletic department has every reason to drop Tubs and throw themselves into the 2016 coaching carousel with the rest of the college football world, and now we have a hard and fast date to watch.

UPDATE: Since I’ve seen people saying both, I should clarify that I’m not sure if “D-Day” is December 7 or December 8. The Vogel tweet says “BEFORE December 7” not “December 7 or before.” It sounds like the buyout drops starting on December 7. I haven’t seen the contract to know what the exact wording is, but it’s my impression that the first day UC can afford to fire Tuberville is December 7. I may be wrong, in which case it’s December 8.

Not that it really matters.

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts on UC vs UConn, The Continuing Tailspin

(Stephen Slade / UConnHuskies.com)

The tailspin that started in the fourth quarter of the Houston game three weeks ago continued on Saturday in Hartford. More of the same, you could say. In 2011 or 2012, more of the same would mean a win. In 2016, more of the same has come to mean a cripplingly depressing performance against any team that lines up opposite the Bearcats. Against Miami or Purdue, more of the same will still get you the win. Against an AAC that’s getting increasingly stronger, more of the same means losses like Saturday.

If you’ve been following me on Twitter for more than a week, I’m sure you know I’m a Browns fan. My undying devotion to the consistently hapless Browns is bad for my health, but I’ve been able to count on the Bearcats balancing that out. Lately, the two teams seem to be blurring together. It’s a sad state of affairs when Murphy’s Law is taking out my two favorite football teams every weekend. Like so many Browns teams I’ve known, you can count on the 2016 Bearcats to be poorly coached, ridden with mistakes, unenthusiastic, and on the short end of every 50/50 call by the referees.

However, I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again here: Like my devotion to the God-forsaken Browns, my love for these Bearcats is unwavering. I’ll be there for homecoming (both physically and mentally) and I expect to win.

I suppose I should wade into the muck that is the UConn game, so let’s go:

Positives:

(LOL.)

• Hayden Moore came back. Regardless of my membership in the Gunner Kiel Fan Club, I think starting Hayden Moore every week is what’s best for the present and future of this team. It’s becoming clear that Gunner is not going to start a game as long as Moore and Ross Trail can walk, so I’m ready to move on from the idea entirely. Let’s keep Hayden healthy and let’s make sure he takes every snap for the remaining six games.
• Hayden Moore looked pretty good, at least comparatively. Looking pretty good––comparatively––is a step in the right direction for a team with UC’s current resume. I’m not jumping up and down over Moore’s play, but I’ll certainly take it. He finished 29-for-55 for 315 yards with an interception. The interception was a badly thrown ball, but it’s the kind of thing you can accept if he’s going to toss two or three touchdowns to go with it. Unfortunately, those never came. Considering his injury status earlier in the week, I think it’s safe to assume the ankle wasn’t exactly 100%. For that reason, I’m happy with that stat line (minus the lack of touchdowns).
• Devin Gray is really good, and so is Nate Cole. I’m sorry we only get one more year of Gray, and I’m sorry that Cole was buried on the depth chart until his senior year. Unfortunate timing for him to only have a single season to show his stuff. He’s good.
• The defense played well. They weren’t fantastic, but they looked pretty good, especially considering the offense did absolutely nothing to help. When you lose the time of possession battle 35–25, it’s hard to keep making stops. Allowing 20 points against UConn should be good enough to win if your offense is functioning at normal capacity. I’m not sure how to account for the two UConn touchdowns. Giving up big plays is a bad sign, especially against an inept offense. It’s also probably not a good sign when fatal mistakes are coming from a senior leader like Zach Edwards. Hard to say if those mistakes are a sign of poor coaching and preparation or if they’re simple outliers that won’t happen again. I don’t know anymore. I’ve said all season that this defense is worth watching, and I still believe that. This group plays with some swagger, and we’ve sorely missed that for a couple years.
• UC won the turnover battle. It’s a small thing that’s gravely important, and we were terrible at doing it last year. Let’s keep it going this season.
• Josh Pasley got his redemption. Heck of a game, kid. A lot of kicking is pure confidence, and Pasley’s had to be shaken after the start to his season. He was the entire offense on Saturday, and he did his job, going 3-for-3 with a long of 43 yards.
• We don’t play next week. I know this sounds cynical, but I mean it earnestly. This bye week couldn’t come at a better time. Let’s get Hayden Moore back to 100% and do some serious soul-searching while we’re at it.
• The program continues to progress towards some kind of D-Day. If you’re of the opinion that Tuberville is the man for the job, Saturday’s loss was a big negative for you. The man you think is right for UC lost an ugly game. If you’re of the opinion that Tuberville is unfit to coach at UC, Saturday’s loss was at the very least a step in the “right direction.” I know it sounds bad, but sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better. I don’t know if that’s the case with this football program, but we’ll find out. The last thing I want is to get stuck in the middle ground of lukewarm success and fan support. Stagnation is the enemy. I think it’s always best to be trending in one direction or the other. Obviously my wish is to be trending positively, but the next best thing is to have an obvious negative trend to catch everyone’s attention. Things got worse on Saturday. Maybe we’ll look back in a year or two and say it ultimately paved the way for a better Bearcats football team.

Negatives:

(I’ll try to keep these brief and under control.)

• The Bearcats are 0–3 in the American. On top of this sounding absolutely terrible, there are stats to back up how absolutely terrible this is. The last time the Bearcats started 0–3 in the conference was in 1999. That team finished 3–8, but also had a Top 10 upset of Wisconsin. This team is in danger of a disastrous finish, but there will be no massive win to serve as a party favor for attending. UC is in a Group of Five conference, and they are in last place. Dead last.
• The Bearcats didn’t score a touchdown. What a mess. I believe the last time UC failed to find the end zone was against #22 Rutgers in 2012. Aside from the fact RU was ranked, the Scarlet Knights also finished 4th in the country in points allowed that season. They had a good defense. Getting held out of the end zone by this UConn team is infinitely worse.
• Three drives stalled in the red zone. Again, this cannot happen, especially against this UConn team. If you can do math, you’ll realize that Bearcat touchdowns on those three first half trips that ended in field goals would mean a 21–20 win, even with the complete lack of scoring after halftime.
• There was a complete lack of scoring after halftime. So much for halftime adjustments. Most coaching staffs can take a beating in the first half and correct things at halftime to improve scoring chances and tighten up defensively in the second half. This coaching staff does the opposite. You want the most embarrassing Bearcats football stat I’ve ever been privy to? UC is getting outscored 64–6 in the second half of conference games this season. That makes me want to barf. Across the board in conference play, the Bearcats have played solid in the opening half only to get outplayed, out-coached, and outclassed after halftime. I don’t care who you are, that is the mark of a bad team and a bad group of coaches. Say what you want about the guys wearing headsets, but that stat is indefensible.
• The running game is still a ghost town. In a development nobody saw coming, the tag-team duo of Tion Green and Mike Boone has been mediocre at best. The pair averaged 1.8 yards on 12 carries Saturday. On the season, they’re averaging a combined 3.9 yards per carry. That’s not good, and is only putting more stress on a QB staff that’s banged up to begin with. I don’t know who to blame on this one, and it’s probably not on one guy’s shoulders. I just have a hard time believing these two forgot how to run the football in the offseason.
• Tuberville tossed someone under the bus… again.This time it was Hayden Moore. Following a first half in which his offense stalled three times inside the red zone, Tuberville pointed to Hayden Moore’s overthrows as the reason for the team’s underwhelming play. Moore missed some shots, and the interception was not a good look. However, how about owning up for some bad play calling? How about putting some blame on a running game that finished the day with two rushing yards? Maybe give the opposition some credit for clamping down your offense. At the very least, bite your tongue and give a non-answer before trotting towards the locker room. Hayden Moore must feel like an absolute dunce when his head coach publicly throws an entire team’s worth of blame on his shoulders after a pretty decent first half. The QBs this season haven’t been stellar, and that comment isn’t going to help anything.

It’s growing increasingly difficult to watch this team, but I implore you guys to stick with them. I’ll be at homecoming, and hopefully a good crowd shows up. If you’d like to voice your unhappiness, the best way to do that is by joining in the effort to #BlackoutHomecoming. The theme for the game is red, but a large group of fans has decided to wear black as a small act of protest against the current direction of the program. I’m on board with this idea because it supports the players and the team while still demonstrating our position as a fan base. There are ways to be heard without simply giving up. Please do not give up. There is a disconnect between talent and production, and this team can still win games if it can close that gap. We’re not dead yet.

Go Bearcats.

Watching Kelce: A Recap of “Catching Kelce” Episode 1

Former Bearcats tight end Travis Kelce left Clifton as the latest in a line of great Cincinnati tight ends. He landed with the Kansas City Chiefs, where his career has exploded. Now his public persona is following suit.

I’ve never personally met Travis, but I get the sense that he’s not putting on much of a show here. He’s the bursting-with-energy type of guy, and it only makes sense that he’s fulfilling his destiny as one of the sport’s greatest personalities.

Somehow, E! gave him his own reality dating competition featuring 50 women. It is going to be awesome, and I’ll be delivering hard-hitting analysis to you every week. Rather than turn every Watching Kelce recap into a 3,000-word essay, I’ll just hit the bullet points. Let’s roll.

Catching Kelce — Episode 1 Analysis & Observations:

• Right off the bat, it’s still goofy that a kid I used to walk past on campus has one of these ridiculous reality dating shows. Follow your dreams, people.
• Is the Travis singing thing supposed to be a joke? I can’t tell, because he’s kind of a good singer. He even did this Lonely Girl bit during his time at UC.
• Shooting this in LA is a major cop-out. Anyone would be willing to spend the summer in Los Angeles. Get these ladies out to Kansas City and let’s see what they’re really made of.
• Connecticut is already creepy. You didn’t have an “instant connection.” Slow down. Your general disposition does not lend itself well to a 60-second elimination challenge.
• Minnesota is a very aloof runner: Minus points. Evidently in love with her cat: Minus points. Cat’s name is Kevin: Plus points. Wasting your whole 60 seconds talking about a cat: Go home. Travis: “That was a little unfortunate. Got caught up in the ole cat story.” LOOOOOL.
• Travis is a genuinely funny dude. This show doesn’t deserve someone this funny.
• Pennsylvania is weird and also nearly dropped dead from nerves. I like it. Hopefully Travis keeps her around. Update: Or not.
• Oh, South Carolina. Hello.
• Oh, and Nevada. Hello.
• Not sure why New Jersey has a southern twang, but I’m here for it. Update: She can cook. Oooooooooh boy.
• Ugh, Connecticut gets to stay? #TeamAntiCT
• Ohio gets eliminated and is heading for an insightful comment before announcing her goal to date a professional baseball player. Classic. I respect the hustle. Look out, Joey Votto.
• I love Michigan so much at this point. Easily the most charming of the contestants.
• Wow. The red suit. It’s great and awful.
• I hope Jason Kelce is a regular on this show. He’s a good addition to balance things out.
• Okay, jokes aside, Connecticut is out of her mind. “If a girl cheated on you, would you ever go back? I don’t believe you.” Why would you call out somebody you just met?
• Not really feeling Minnesota, but I respect her. Not afraid to be super uncomfortable and awkward. She’s like a bull in a china shop with this group.
• Colorado, I love you.
• Minnesota is seriously outrageous and I can’t tell if I love it or hate it. She’ll never win the competition, but she’s incredibly entertaining. Also, I don’t think she knows how to pronounce “Kelce.”
• Georgia’s white dress for elimination is the absolute worst.
• Travis genuinely looks miserable sending these girls home.
• I really dislike Connecticut, but Michigan throwing her under the bus is a bad look. I think it nearly cost Miss MI a spot on the show. Thankfully she made the cut. I like her.
• Connecticut getting sent home is incredibly satisfying, especially considering that Travis went out of his way to say that he didn’t see the connection… after Miss CT spend the whole episode talking about it.
• WOOOOOOW RHODE ISLAND RESPONDED TO THE FRIEND ZONE THING BY GOING STRAIGHT FOR AN INTENSE KISS WHOOOOAH. IT’S ON, BOYS AND GIRLS.
• Rhode Island barely making the cut feels like a college football team narrowly avoiding upset to start the season before rumbling towards a national championship appearance. She was the last girl through, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her make a run deep into the competition.
• Semi-ashamed to admit that I genuinely enjoyed this show. I came because Travis is a Bearcat, but I’ll be staying because he’s hilarious and this show is wildly entertaining.
• I feel like I could easily knock this competition down to three people right now. There’s a clearly-cut Top 3, in my eyes.

Official OhVarsity! Catching Kelce Top 5 (Week 1)

1. New Jersey (Veronica) [5 total points]
2. Colorado (Avery) [4 total points]
3. Rhode Island (Victoria) [3 total points]
4. Michigan (Ceecee) [2 total points]
5. Minnesota (Anika) [1 total point]

Two Cents & Sense: Thoughts on UC vs USF, the Final Straw in the Tuberville Era?

(GoBearcats.com)

Writing this weekly column and picking out positives from the games grows harder and harder. This week, I don’t even have “a win is a win” to fall back on. The Bearcats lost, decisively, to the South Florida Bulls. On the surface, this isn’t exactly a catastrophe. Despite the reputation that USF has earned among Bearcats faithful, the Bulls are a good team. They have been since the beginning of last year. They should win at least eight games this season.

So, why did an “understandable” loss ignite the most rip-roaring firestorm I’ve seen from UC Twitter? Here’s a closer look.

Let’s look at the negatives:

(Trying to control my rage here.)

• The starting quarterback never stood a chance. Redshirt freshman Ross Trail started the game for the Bearcats, and wasn’t yanked off the field until the end of the third quarter, following a pick six. Trail has now thrown six interceptions this season against just one touchdown. He’s thrown two pick sixes, which means he’s thrown more touchdowns to the defense than to the Bearcats. Look, I like Trail. So far, he’s shown me nothing that leads me to believe he can’t compete in the future. I like his skill set, but the kid isn’t ready. The fans know it, and you gotta believe Trail himself knows it by now. Throwing him into the fire at this point is bad coaching, a slap in the face to your players and fans, and terrible for Trail’s confidence. Put your kids in a position to win. Don’t hang some poor freshman out to dry because you’re less worried about winning football games than you are about teaching a lesson to a senior quarterback with 50 career touchdowns.
• The QB battle looks like an absolute sham. I have been on Gunner’s side since the start of fall camp, but I learned to accept the Hayden Moore era as it was forced upon us. Hayden didn’t blow me away, but he was getting the job done until he got injured against Houston and struggled late as a result. Now that Hayden is hurt, Tuberville can’t hide behind excuses anymore. Following camp, he boasted about having three quarterbacks who could run the team. While that sounds fantastic, it’s nothing more than a lie. This team has three quarterbacks: An injured sophomore, a freshman in over his head, and a senior who Tuberville refuses to play. I had a pretty good theory for “The Gunner Issue,” but Saturday debunked it. After an unconfirmed report that the offensive staff “forced” Tuberville to finally insert his senior, Kiel left the field at the end of a drive and exchanged some words with his head coach. While this anger from Gunner is refreshing to see, it unfortunately seems to substantiate the theory that Gunner was planted at #3 on the depth chart as an act of spite by Tommy T. I had doubted this theory, but now it looks like the only possible answer. There’s no conspiracy theory. Tuberville stuck his senior and the end of the bench and Gunner is angry. To make things worse, Tuberville referenced Kiel just once in the postgame press conference, and it was only to bring up his turnover problems last year.
• Tuberville quit. Again. Last season against BYU, Tuberville enraged the fan base by waiving the white flag in an important non-conference game. Trailing by two scores with four minutes remaining, Tommy decided to call it a night and punted the ball to the Cougars, who ran out the clock for the win. In a season full of anger and heartbreak, that may have been my low point. On Saturday, with the Bearcats facing an 18-point deficit at the onset of the fourth quarter, Tuberville thought it would be a good idea to try a 48-yard field goal with UC’s backup kicker who is currently 2-for-5 on the year to go with a pair of badly missed extra points. Aside from the message that sends to fans, what must that feel like for the players? You don’t land on a big-time college football team without being extremely competitive and confident. What does it feel like when your own head coach has clearly given up on you? Sure, pulling off an 18-point comeback is immensely difficult, but with their senior quarterback finally returning, I know for a fact those players were gearing up for a fight. A long field goal attempt in that situation with that kicker may as well just be a punt with a full quarter of football remaining.
• Tuberville still can’t win the big game, especially against teams in the American. Here’s a full list of 8-win AAC teams Tuberville has beaten in his time at UC: Houston 2013, ECU 2014, Houston 2014. The ECU game was nearly given away on the worst play call I’ve ever seen, and the Houston game later that year saw the Bearcats hang on for dear life after Kiel left with a second-half injury. In that same stretch, Tuberville has lost six games against 8-win AAC teams. 3–6 against good teams may not sound like a train wreck, but it is. (Especially considering Houston and USF should be joining the 8-win club this year, pushing TT’s record to 3–8.) For a program that was dominating a power conference a few years ago, you’d think knocking off a few good AAC teams would be possible. For a coach with tenure in the SEC and Big 12, you’d think knocking off a few good AAC teams would be possible. Don’t get me started on bowl games.
• The Bearcats are 3–2, but the season is on the verge of being a dumpster fire. The Bearcats have started 0–2 in the conference for the second consecutive year, essentially ending championship hopes as quickly as they started. Losing two conference games is bad enough, but doing it to open the season, at home, against the best team from each division is worse. 3–2 is nothing to jump off a bridge over, but stop and consider the future of this season. Before Tuberville can think about finishing at a respectable 8–4, he has to worry about getting his team back on his side. The 2010 Bearcats folded under Butch Jones, finishing 4–8 because he lost the locker room. The 2016 Bearcats are teetering on the edge. Tuberville has to get his kids motivated to play. He also has to start Gunner Kiel, which seems unlikely given their sideline spat on Saturday, which surely only added fuel to the fire between the coach and QB. This team has the talent to win eight or nine games this season, but there are a lot of intangibles that go into a successful year, and I don’t think we have any of those.

On the bright side:

(Yikes, this is tough this week.)

• We’re still 3–2. In a five game stretch, losing two games is not good. Over the course of a full season, losing two games is pretty great. Wins and losses are all that matter, and if this team and this coaching staff ever decide to maximize potential, there’s a scenario where we finish the regular season 10–2. Do I think that’s possible? Absolutely. Do I think it’s likely? Not really. Having said that, there is some precedent for it. In 2013, the second weekend of October kicked off a six-game winning streak. In 2014, the third week of October kicked off a seven-game winning streak. The league is better than it was in those years, but we still have the ability. If there’s one thing Tuberville has done well, it’s handle bad teams and string together wins in the second half of the season.
• Gunner finally threw a pass. Surely Tuberville can’t put the cat back in the bag, right? Unless Hayden is back to 100% and starting, I simply can’t fathom Tommy running Ross Trail back out there against UConn. Saturday was an unmitigated disaster, but we may have worked ourselves into a spot where Tuberville has no choice but to start his fifth-year senior. Given the way he ended last season and started this one, you gotta believe Gunner is chomping at the bit to get out there and prove himself again.
• Tuberville accepted responsibility. Maybe I’m wrong, but it feels like the first time Tommy has come out and taken the blame. As a head coach, you have to accept responsibility for what’s your fault, and take the fall for a lot of things that aren’t. Tuberville typically does neither. Maybe Saturday was a wake up call. It means very little, but at least it’s something.
• The Bearcats fan base is on the same page. Cincinnati sports fans live in a constant state of divisiveness. Even just in regards to the Bearcats, the fan base can rarely agree on anything. There are fans that still clamor for Bob Huggins at every turn. There are fans that want to run Mick out of town. There are fans that want Cronin on a lifetime contract. There are fans that thought Butch Jones was great and fans that never liked him. Towards the end of last season, the line on Tuberville started to move. There are fewer and fewer fans on his side, myself included. In my life as a sports fan, I’ve never picketed for a coaching change. It’s just not my style. Suddenly I find myself boiling over with frustration about UC football. If Tuberville buried his head in the sand up to this point, now he knows for sure: His approval rating is in the garbage, and the overwhelming majority of UC fans are finally on the same page. Between the team’s performance on Saturday, the vocal displeasure inside the stadium, and the tidal wave of vitriol on Twitter, this should be a wake up call. It felt like a program-altering loss.

[embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/782400045010128896[/embed]

Where do I stand?

I’m not anti-Bearcats, and I never will be. I refuse to give up on UC, ever. That said, for the first time, I’m firmly standing on the anti-Tuberville side of the fence. If this current trend continues, I think it’s time to pull the plug at the end of the season. Do I think they’ll fire him? Not really. Can Tuberville win me back? Sure. Pulling out eight or nine wins and a bowl game this year would probably extend my personal leash.

I’ve always been somewhat annoyed by the entitlement of UC fans. Especially when it comes to basketball, Bearcats faithful seem to think anything short of elite national prominence is worthy of firing. In this case, I think that mentality is a good thing. We all went into the game against #6 Houston expecting to win. That was probably unwarranted, but I love that the expectations for the program remain high.

The only remaining defense of Tuberville’s tenure is that he takes care of lowly teams. At a place like Purdue, that’ll get the job done. At Cincinnati, that’s not good enough. The city, the program, the fans, and the players deserve better than mediocrity. If Tuberville can’t deliver more than mediocrity over the next seven or eight games, he doesn’t deserve to be here. He’s making a lot of money to coach in a conference that’s not immensely difficult in front of fans that are very supportive without applying much pressure to win like at OSU or Texas. This is a good gig, and I think we’re all starting to get the feeling that we’re being taken advantage of.

If there’s one thing you take from this rant, let it be this:

Do not give up on this team. I know the coaching staff, especially Tuberville, hasn’t earned much loyalty in the past few years. However, if anyone is more disappointed than the fans, it’s the players. These kids had a choice of where to spend their college careers, and they chose the University of Cincinnati. They chose us, so let’s stick with them. It would be easy to give up and stop attending games, but the players don’t deserve that.

Show up at Nippert. Make noise. When the time is right, make your displeasure known. Just remember who your frustration is directed at, and don’t let these kids play in an empty stadium. That would only make things more depressing. We have two weeks off to simmer down and take a break from football in Clifton. Let’s beat UConn, lick our wounds in the bye week, and come out strong to Nippert for Homecoming against ECU. The season isn’t dead yet, and neither am I.

Go Bearcats.

Cincinnati vs USF: A Football History

The Bearcats celebrate with the travelling fan contingent following their 2007 win in Tampa. (AP/Mike Carlson)

The South Florida Bulls turned the corner in 2015, winning eight games and returning to national relevance for the first time in five years. The Bearcats, meanwhile, squandered away multiple games before getting blasted by the surging Bulls in Tampa. USF has never beaten Cincinnati in back-t0-back seasons, and the Bearcats will take the field Saturday with the goal of making sure that remains the case. Here’s the Cincinnati-South Florida breakdown and a look at some notable games:

All-time series record: Cincinnati leads, 8–5

First meeting: 2003

Last meeting: 2015

Current streak: South Florida won last year

Record in Cincinnati: Cincinnati leads, 5–1

Streak in Cincinnati: Cincinnati has won the last two

Mike Daniels scores a first quarter touchdown. (AP photo)

October 31, 2003 — South Florida 24, Cincinnati 17

The Bulls joined Conference USA for the 2003 season, which set up their first matchup with the Bearcats. UC packed up and flew to Tampa for a Halloween game in front of what looked to be a very sparse crowd.

Mistakes were a theme, and the Bearcats seemingly did all they could do lose the game. After a defensive stand that forced USF to tie the game rather than take the lead, the red and black worked themselves into field goal position to take a shot at a 41-yard game-winner with four seconds left. The attempt was blocked, and the teams went to overtime tied at 10.

The Bearcat defense, having played tough all night, quickly came unravelled and allowed touchdowns on USF’s first two possessions. Following a UC first down in 2OT, Gino Guidugli’s pass bounced off of the shoulder pad of Richard Hall and into a defender’s hands to end the game. The whole mess is on YouTube, if you’d like to watch.

The win pushed the Bulls to 5–3 on their way to a 7–4 finish. The double overtime victory over the Bearcats was USF’s second of three double overtime victories on the year. The loss dropped the Bearcats to 4–4 on the year, and they’d go on to lose three of their remaining four, signaling the end of the Rick Minter era and making way for Mark Dantonio in 2004.

To be fair, I’m not sure anyone cared about this excruciating loss, because:

(Enquirer, 11/01/2003)

Butler Benton runs for a 48-yard touchdown in the second quarter. (Enquirer/Meggan Booker)

November 20, 2004 — Cincinnati 45, South Florida 23

The Bulls made the trip to Nippert for the first time and took their first shot at Bearcat head coach Mark Dantonio. UC swung hard and didn’t miss, storming to a 45–23 victory at home.

After a critical turnover near the end of the first half, USF knotted the score at 17. However, the Bearcats drove 80 yards down the field on the ensuing drive to take a 7-point lead into the break. After halftime, the offense and defense turned things up to pull away for the win behind stellar performances from Guidugli and the entire running back corps.

The win made the Bearcats bowl eligible and helped toward a 7–5 finish. USF limped to their first losing season, a place they wouldn’t return to until 2011.

WR Marcus Barnett slings a 76-yard pass to Mardy Gilyard in the second quarter. (AP/Mike Carlson)

November 3, 2007 — Cincinnati 38, #20 South Florida 33

2007 in Tampa was like 2009 in Clifton. Building on years of success, the Bulls finally were getting things to fall into place. They opened the season 6–0 with wins at #17 Auburn and at home over #5 West Virginia. The Bulls had arrived, and they were ranked #2 in the country by mid-October. Then things started to fall apart. First it was a 3-point loss in New Jersey to Rutgers, then a 7-point loss in Hartford to UConn. The Bulls limped home in November to face Brian Kelly’s Bearcats, hoping to get back on track.

On the first drive of the game, USF picked off a Ben Mauk pass and took it 73 yards for a touchdown and a 7-point lead. UC was able to equalize with a 63-yard Mauk touchdown pass, but USF returned the ensuing kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, giving them a 14–7 lead.

The Bearcats responded well, answering with a field goal, a blocked punt returned for a score, a 79-yard interception return, and a 16-yard touchdown catch by Dominick Goodman. This was all before the end of the first quarter. UC was suddenly leading 31–14.

The Bulls made it interesting late, but their comeback bid fell short, and their plummet from #2 continued following a third consecutive loss. They never really recovered that season, finishing 9–4 following a loss in the Sun Bowl. The Bearcats couldn’t quite get past #5 West Virginia two weeks later, and settled for a victory in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, capping a 10–3 season.

(AP photo)

October 15, 2009 — #8 Cincinnati 34, #21 South Florida 17

The Bearcats returned to Tampa in 2009 as a Top 10 team. The Bulls were a respectable #21, but had won five straight games against ranked teams, two of which were Top 10. The Bearcats were good, but the Bulls liked their chances, especially at home in front of a packed crowd of nearly 64,000 at Raymond James Stadium.

USF scored first, taking a 7–0 lead on a BJ Daniels touchdown pass, but the Bearcats held a 17–10 halftime advantage after two first half connections between Tony Pike and Armon Binns. Early in the third quarter, Pike re-aggravated a 2008 injury and was replaced by sophomore QB Zach Collaros, who promptly split the Bulls defense for a 75-yard touchdown that effectively put the game away.

[embed]https://twitter.com/OhVarsity/status/780815833945735168[/embed]

Collaros scored on another touchdown run for good measure, and the Bearcats got the win in Tampa, pushing them to 6–0 at the midpoint of what would be a perfect 2009 regular season. It was the fourth consecutive win for UC in the series, the longest by either team.

Zach Collaros scores on a rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter. (AP Photo/The Tampa Tribune, Fred Bellet)

October 22, 2011 — Cincinnati 37, South Florida 33

By 2011, Collaros was a senior, and ready to bookend his Bearcats legacy with another Big East Championship. After a blowout Week 2 loss in Knoxville, the Bearcats headed to Tampa with a 5–1 record to face a team that beat the Bearcats in 2010 and opened 2011 with a win over #16 Notre Dame in South Bend.

The Bearcats started slow, playing to a 10–10 halftime tie. UC let the third quarter get away from them, and the Bulls opened up a 10-point lead to start the fourth. A Collaros touchdown run made it a 3-point game before a touchdown pass to Alex Chisum gave UC its first lead of the half.

The Bearcats had their work cut out for them after a BJ Daniels touchdown pass with 1:27 remaining, but the always-poised Collaros crafted a 7-play, 70-yard touchdown drive that ended with the game winning score with 12 seconds remaining.

Two weeks later, Collaros fell to injury, causing the Bearcats to lose two consecutive games on their way to a 10–3 finish. The Bulls, who had entered conference play 4–0 and ranked #14, finished the Big East slate at just 1–6, capping a disastrous second season for Skip Holtz.

(Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports)

November 20, 2015 — South Florida 65, Bearcats 27

The Bearcats’ disappointing 2015 season went from bad to worse in Tampa, as a crowd of fewer than 27,000 had plenty to cheer about in USF’s beatdown of UC. A 44-yard Andrew Gantz field goal saved UC from being shut out in the first half, but the red and black saw only red with the scoreboard reading 51–3 at the break.

Things got a bit better in the second half (which isn’t saying much) as Chris Moore reeled in a 54-yard touchdown pass from Hayden Moore to clinch the Bearcats career receiving touchdowns record.

For the Bearcats, the loss was a preview of what to expect in the Hawaii Bowl. For the Bulls, the win was another stepping stone in the return to relevance. USF won eight games and made a bowl appearance, both of which hadn’t been done in Tampa since 2010.

So far, the Bearcats seem to be much-improved defensively in 2016. The game is in Cincinnati, where USF has just one win in six tries. The Bulls have never beaten the Bearcats in back-to-back seasons. If history and statistics are any indication, I like the Bearcats’ chances this weekend. A win here would likely be the biggest conference win for Tommy Tuberville since the Bearcats fended off Houston at the end of the 2014 season to win the AAC title. UC played strong for three quarters against a Top 10 team two weeks ago. Saturday they’ll have a chance to prove that wasn’t a fluke, and move one step closer to facing Houston again in December.

By The Numbers: The Tuberville Tenure

(Al Behrman/AP)

So I kinda got into it on Twitter last night. Given the bad taste in everyone’s mouth after the Miami win, I figured it was finally time to sit down and sort out my feelings about Tommy Tuberville. It’s something I’ve been avoiding, because I don’t want to hate the guy, and his resume at UC is kind of complicated. In his 43 games in Cincy, my feelings towards him have absolutely run the gamut. I’m sure everyone else feels the same. Without playing psychologist and trying to dissect why everyone seems to have turned on him (and whether or not those reasons are valid), I wanted to bring some kind of semblance to his first 43 games in Clifton. The last 75% of this season is going to make or break his Cincinnati tenure, so I’m here to establish a baseline. Here are the hard facts on Tuberville at UC, personal opinions aside:

[Note: You can’t glean anything––positive or negative––from an FCS game. Therefore, all stats include FBS games only. If there is a stat you think should be added, tweet me.]

Win-Loss Record:

2013: 8–4

2014: 9–4

2015: 6–6

2016: 2–1

Total: 25–15 (.625)

Conference Record:

2013: 6–2

2014: 7–1

2015: 4–4

2016: 0–1

Total: 17–8 (.680)

Non-Conference Record:

2013: 2–2

2014: 2–3

2015: 2–2

2016: 2–0

Total: 8–7

vs Teams With 8+ Wins:

2013: 1–1

2014: 3–2

2015: 1–6

2016: N/A

Total: 5–9 (.357)

vs Non-Bowl Eligible Teams:

2013: 6–2

2014: 5–0

2015: 3–0

2016: N/A

Total: 14–2 (.875)

Blowout Wins:

(Wins by 21 points or more.)

2013: 3

2014: 4

2015: 2

2016: 0

Total: 9

Blowout Losses:

(Losses by 21 points or more.)

2013: 2

2014: 3

2015: 2

2016: 1

Total: 8

Narrow Wins:

(Wins by eight points or less.)

2013: 2

2014: 4

2015: 2

2016: 1

Total: 9

Narrow Losses:

(Losses by eight points or less.)

2013: 2

2014: 0

2015: 3

2016: 0

Total: 5

Home Record:

(Any game played at Nippert or Paul Brown Stadium.)

2013: 4–1

2014: 5–1*

2015: 4–1

2016: 1–1

Total: 14–4 (.778)

Record Away From Home:

(Any game played outside of Nippert or Paul Brown Stadium.)

2013: 4–3

2014: 4–3

2015: 2–5

2016: 1–0

Total: 11–11 (.500)

Record on Short Week:

(Games with five or fewer days to prepare.)

2013: 0–0

2014: 0–0

2015: 0–1

2016: 0–1

Total: 0–2 (.000)

Record on Long Week:

(Games with nine or more days to prepare.)

2013: 2–3

2014: 2–1

2015: 0–2

2016: 2–0

Total: 6–6 (.500)

Weekdays:

2013: 2–1

2014: 4–0

2015: 1–4

2016: 0–1

Total: 7–6 (.538)

Saturdays:

2013: 6–3

2014: 5–4

2015: 5–2

2016: 2–0

Total: 18–9 (.667)

By Month:

August: 1–0 (1.000)

September: 6–5 (.545)

October: 9–4 (.692)

November: 8–2 (.800)

December: 1–4 (.200)

Big Games:

(I’ve defined “big games” as games against Miami OH and Louisville, games against conference teams with 8+ wins that season, and bowl games.)

2013: 2–2

2014: 3–2

2015: 1–5

2016: 1–0

Total: 7–9 (.438)

Must Win Games:

(This stat does include FCS teams. You “must win” against FCS teams, Miami OH, and teams who were not bowl eligible that season.)

2013: 7–2

2014: 5–0

2015: 4–0

2016: 2–0

Total: 18–2 (.900)

SportsCenter Games:

(I don’t know what else to call these, but they’re the games that are talked about in the national media: Bowl games and games against ranked teams.)

2013: 0–2

2014: 0–2

2015: 0–2

2015: 0–1

Total: 0–7 (.000)

Power 5 Games:

(Games against teams currently in a Power 5 conference.)

2013: 2–3

2014: 0–3

2015: 1–1

2016: 1–0

Total: 4–7 (.364)

Healthy Gunner Games:

(Games in which Gunner Kiel started and did not leave due to injury.)

2014: 6–2

2015: 5–3

Total: 11–5 (.688)

Hurt Gunner Games:

(Games in which Gunner Kiel started and left early due to injury.)

2014: 3–2

2015: 1–1

Total: 4–3 (.571)